Three Drivers in Contention for the Championship?

So is it possible for Robert Kubica to win the F1 championship? Mathematically it certainly is but realistically, that’s the question. Lewis Hamilton leads the championship with 78 points and Felipe Massa is second one point behind with 77 points. Robert is 14 points behind Hamilton with 64 and it seems like a tall order to make up enough ground in the last 4 races to beat either of them, but let’s have a look.

I’ll start by going back 5 races to the German Grand Prix and do some point collecting. At that point in the season the standings were:

Lewis Hamilton 58
Felipe Massa 54 points
Robert Kubica 48 points

After this GP Robert was closer than he is now to Lewis and a mere 10 points behind. Lewis Hamilton won the race and collected 10 points to give him the 58. Felipe Massa finished 3rd and collected 6 points giving him the 54, and Robert Kubica finished 7th and collected a single point leaving him at 48 points.

On to the Hungarian Grand Prix (cough cough). Yes it was a poor one for the BMW Sauber team. After this race the standings looked like this:

Lewis Hamilton 62
Felipe Massa 54
Robert Kubica 49

Lewis Hamilton finished 5th collecting 4 points at Hungary while Felipe Massa retired with an engine blow up giving him a fat 0 points. Robert Kubica finished, but only 8th giving him a single point.
What can we get out of this? Hamilton gained only 3 points on Kubica while Kubica gained a point on Felipe Massa. Despite the poor result from BMW Sauber the championship certainly didn’t get away from Robert.

After the European Grand Prix in Spain the standings looked like this:

Lewis Hamilton 70
Felipe Massa 64
Robert Kubica 55

The race was dominated by Felipe Massa who added 10 points to his total, Lewis Hamilton scraped out a 2nd place finish gaining 8 points and Robert Kubica grabbed 3rd place for 6 points.

It’s beginning to look like a roller coaster ride with gain a bit and lose a bit for Robert, but he’s staying in touch at 15 points behind.

Belgium was Massa’s race and here’s the standings after that one:

Lewis Hamilton 76
Felipe Massa 74
Robert Kubica 58

The order in this race was Massa 1st with 10 points, Hamilton 3rd with 6 points and Robert Kubica finishing 6th with 3 points. Hmmm, things are looking tough I think.

The last race was the Italian Grand Prix at Monza and the points totals looked like this after the race:

Lewis Hamilton 78
Felipe Massa 77
Robert Kubica 64

Kubica was the best of the 3 in this GP finishing 3rd and collecting a valuable 6 points. Felipe Massa was next finishing 6th getting 3 points and Lewis Hamilton finishing only 7th getting 2 points.

After looking at just the figures from these 5 races, the only gainer is Massa. Kubica is still 14 points behind and hasn’t gained a thing and in fact he’s lost 4 points to Hamilton and 7 to Massa. Based on this, things are going to be tough.

On the other hand to look at positives, the F1.08 seems a little better in the rain and so does Kubica. If Singapore is a wet race he could stand to gain some points here as well.

Mario Theissen hasn’t ruled out a championship fight for Kubica in the final 4 races of the season and I tend to agree. Sure numbers do tell a story, but there are too many other variables for example the F1.08 has been bullet proof with reliability this season having finished all races. Both Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa have had their share of problems; penalties for Hamilton and crashes with Massa.
Mario Theissen also says he will continue to keep Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld equal and throw everything he has behind both drivers. If he really thinks Kubica has a chance at the title, maybe it would be a good idea to throw a little more behind him. It’s a tough call considering Heidfeld is doing pretty well now as well, but the championship is out of touch for him.

So that’s where I see it. If anyone has anything they’d like to add, let’s hear it. I’ve also added another poll to the right left sidebar asking the same question.